The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)

Frost/Nixon (2008)

The Reader (2008)

Slumdog Millionaire (2008)

The thing about a Best Picture is that it needs a full deck–acting, story, visual effects, music, and star power–in order to win big, so my money’s on Benjamin Button. The rest of them have literary cred (The Reader and Revolutionary Road), strong performances (Frost/Nixon) and unique scripts (Slumdog Millionaire) but none fuse them all into a winning film experience.

Burn After Reading (2008)

In Bruges (2008)

Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008)

The Hollywood Foreign Press masks their indecision by dividing films into two categories: Drama and Musical/Comedy. It’s great because more people win, but only after the awards are given out can you get a real sense of who will be on the Oscar ballot. In this case, I think the huge international success that was Mamma Mia! will earn some recognition here, and if it is nominated for an Oscar, it will be more for the box office returns than film quality. 

Leonardo DiCaprio for Revolutionary Road (2008)

Sean Penn for Milk (2008)

Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler (2008)

Sean Penn, no question. Despite his stormy nature, everyone loves him. Brad Pitt’s transformation into Benjamin Button will probably get credit where it deserves: makeup and visual effects. However, there is a potential left-field winner in Frank Langella, who gives a brilliant turn as former Prez Dick Nixon in Frost/Nixon and getting rave reviews.

Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married (2008)

Meryl Streep for Doubt (2008)

Kate Winslet for Revolutionary Road (2008)

Toughie. Though I am completely biased and am rooting for Kate Winslet, I think she’s likelier to win for The Reader, a much more controversial and transformative performance. Everyone loves Meryl, but it’s almost obligatory to nominate her now. I think it’s between Hathaway and Jolie, who the critics have both loved this year. If Jolie takes it, it will be because her star power outshone the competition. Either way, it will be nice to see her and Brad there in all their gorgeousness.

Javier Bardem for Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008)

James Franco for Pineapple Express (2008)

Dustin Hoffman for Last Chance Harvey (2008)

Dustin Hoffman is a perennial favorite and always brilliant, but this is James Franco’s year. His turn as a high-as-a-kite pot dealer in the summer romp Pineapple Express was convincing enough to earn some critical attention for a film that would have otherwise been overlooked.

Rebecca Hall for Vicky Cristina Barcelona (2008)

Frances McDormand for Burn After Reading (2008)

Emma Thompson for Last Chance Harvey (2008)

It’s between newcomer Sally Hawkins and Meryl, who managed to make you think deeply about ABBA. Hawkins’ performance as a perpetual optimist in Happy-Go-Lucky is being loved-up by critics this year, and rightfully so; she’s completely charming. I won’t be surprised if Hawkins takes it.  

Tom Cruise for Tropic Thunder (2008)

Ralph Fiennes for The Duchess (2008)

Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight (2008)

Heath.

Amy Adams for Doubt (2008)

Viola Davis for Doubt (2008)

Kate Winslet for The Reader (2008)

Kate Winslet can consider this one hers. Although she deserves to win, it will also serve as a consolation prize if she doesn’t win for Revolutionary Road.

Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire (2008)

David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008)

Sam Mendes for Revolutionary Road (2008)

Again, I’m leaning toward Button. David Fincher’s attention to detail and creative visual storytelling (see Seven and Fight Club) has yet to get the recognition it deserves. If the film delivers critically and financially, he’s as good as gold.

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (2008): Eric Roth, Robin Swicord

Frost/Nixon (2008): Peter Morgan

Slumdog Millionaire (2008): Simon Beaufoy

Slumdog Millionaire will probably take this one. Screenplay is a great category because it’s all about the writing and nothing else. In this case, it doesn’t matter that no one has seen the film; if the script is solid, that’s all that counts.

Bolt (2008)(”I Thought I Lost You”)

Gran Torino (2008)(”Gran Torino”)

The Wrestler (2008)(”The Wrestler”)

Bruce Springstein for “The Wrestler”. Hollywood loves him.

Changeling (2008): Clint Eastwood

Defiance (2008): James Newton Howard

Slumdog Millionaire (2008): A.R. Rahman

An awards show is not an awards show if Clint Eastwood goes home empty-handed. He’ll get this one because he wasn’t nominated for anything else.

Bolt (2008)

WALL·E (2008)

‘Tis the season of going green, and WALL-E is the poster boy. Pixar rocks.

Der Baader Meinhof Komplex (2008)

Gomorra (2008)

Waltz with Bashir (2008)

Foreign films are always tricky because they have a much different audience than American cinema. In this case, however, I’m voting for Waltz with Bashir.

“Dexter” (2006)

“In Treatment” (2008)

“True Blood” (2007)

Mad Men, a nostaligic look at the world of 50’s advertising, was a huge success this year and will probably reap the rewards for it.

“Californication” (2007)

“The Office” (2005)

“Weeds” (2005)

Again, a toughie. After Tina Fey rocked it Sarah-Palin-style on SNL, everyone is in love with her. 30 Rock, which she created and stars in, could ride on her coattails.

Bernard and Doris (2007)

“John Adams” (2008)

Recount (2008) (TV)

John Adams. Huge critical success produced by Tom Hanks. It also happened to be awesome. 

Ralph Fiennes for Bernard and Doris (2007)

Kevin Spacey for Recount (2008) (TV)

Tom Wilkinson for Recount (2008) (TV)

It’s all about Paul Giamatti this year. Even though he was amazing as John Adams, he should win as an apology for not getting the Oscar for Sideways. Robbery. 

Judi Dench for “Cranford” (2007)

Laura Linney for “John Adams” (2008)

Susan Sarandon for Bernard and Doris (2007)

This is John Adams year. Congrats, Laura Linney!

Alec Baldwin for “30 Rock” (2006)

Kevin Connolly for “Entourage” (2004)

Tony Shalhoub for “Monk” (2002)

Who doesn’t love Steve Carell? His performance on The Office as a corporate blowhard is so good it makes me uncomfortable. Tony Shalhoub is fabulous in Monk, but he’s won already. David Duchovny killed his chances with the whole sex addiction thing; Californication is all about sex, so it’s probably not too much of a stretch for him. Give it to the 40 year old virgin!

Christina Applegate for “Samantha Who?” (2007)

Tina Fey for “30 Rock” (2006)

Mary-Louise Parker for “Weeds” (2005)

Applegate vs. Fey. As mentioned before, Fey could coast on her SNL merits, but Applegate is a success story after beating cancer this year.

Gabriel Byrne for “In Treatment” (2008)

Jon Hamm for “Mad Men” (2007)

Jonathan Rhys Meyers for “The Tudors” (2007)

The Tudors was huge this year, so the award could go to Meyers. However, Michael C. Hall, who was so brilliant in Six Feet Under, has a shot at it. And I’m not just saying that because my husband loves Dexter.

Sally Field for “Brothers & Sisters” (2006)

January Jones for “Mad Men” (2007)

Kyra Sedgwick for “The Closer” (2005)

January Jones can count on Mad Men’s success to get her up to the podium. She can be the pretty young thing this year. 

Neil Patrick Harris for “How I Met Your Mother” (2005)

Jeremy Piven for “Entourage” (2004)

Tom Wilkinson for “John Adams” (2008)

Denis Leary killed his chances with a stupid comment about Autism in his new book, so it’s between Piven and Wilkinson. Ari Emmanuel, brother of soon-to-be Presidential Chief of Staff Ram Emmanuel, is the basis of Piven’s character. Since this is the year of Obama…But Wilkinson rocked it as Benjamin Franklin in John Adams, so we’ll see what the foreign press has to say.

Eileen Atkins for “Cranford” (2007)

Melissa George for “In Treatment” (2008)

Dianne Wiest for “In Treatment” (2008)

Dianne Wiest is awesome, and HBO’s In Treatment was a critical success. Congrats, Diane!